Aya Gold & Silver Files Updated Preliminary Economic Assessment Technical Report for Boumadine Project

Aya's Boumadine PEA doubles NPV to $3.5B, but all gains remain modelled, not realised.

What the company is saying

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. is highlighting a major step forward for its Boumadine Polymetallic Project in Morocco, filing an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (2026 PEA) that supersedes last year's study. The company frames the project as 'district-scale' with a flexible mine plan, emphasizing a 14-year mine life, a more than doubling of after-tax NPV (5%) to $3.5B, and a 93% IRR in the base case. Management stresses improved economics due to higher commodity price assumptions, increased gold and silver payability (now 82% and 85%, up 12 and 8 percentage points), and a larger resource base. The release foregrounds capital efficiency, with a $463M initial capex and an NPV:Capex ratio rising to 7.6x. Aya also points to a 16% increase in silver production over the life of mine, and a 34% increase in Indicated resources. The tone is confident and data-driven, with detailed sensitivity tables and explicit comparisons to the prior PEA. The company notes the project is permitted with an existing mining license and that the PEA was prepared by independent Qualified Persons, including Mr. Guy Dishaw (SRK), Preetham Nayak (Lycopodium), and Paul Gauthier (CCE Mining).

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures show a substantial improvement in project economics versus the prior PEA: after-tax NPV (5%) is $3.5B in the base case, more than double the previous estimate, with a 93% IRR and a payback period of 0.7 years. At spot prices as of September 3, 2026, NPV rises to $5.5B and IRR to 128%. Initial capital expenditure is $463M, and the NPV:Capex ratio increases from 3.3x to 7.6x. Gold and silver payability have improved to 82% and 85%, up 12 and 8 percentage points, respectively. The mine life is extended from 11 to 14 years, with 41.2 Mt of mineralized material to be mined (+33%), and life-of-mine production is 3.9 Moz AuEq (+7%), including 2.3 Moz Au and 81.2 Moz Ag. Cash costs are projected at $998/oz AuEq (Years 1-5) and $1,169/oz AuEq over LOM; AISC is $1,105/oz (Years 1-5) and $1,300/oz LOM. The updated Mineral Resource Estimate (as of February 28, 2026) reports 8.6 Mt at 4.02 g/t AuEq Indicated (1.1 Moz, up 34%) and 45.4 Mt at 2.92 g/t AuEq Inferred (4.3 Moz, up 1%). Sensitivity analysis shows NPV (5%) after-tax ranges from $1,808M at break-even gold price ($1,704/oz) to $6,738M at upside gold price ($5,250/oz). All figures are modelled and contingent on future studies, with the company explicitly cautioning that the PEA is preliminary and includes inferred resources too speculative to be considered reserves.

Analysis

The announcement is highly positive in tone, emphasizing large increases in NPV, IRR, and mine life versus the prior PEA, and provides detailed technical and economic data. However, as a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), all project economics, production, and cash flow figures are forward-looking and based on assumptions, not realised outcomes. The PEA explicitly includes a large proportion of inferred resources, which are too speculative to be considered reserves, and the company itself cautions that there is no certainty the PEA will be realized. The $463M initial capex is substantial, and while the project is permitted with a mining license, there is no evidence of construction start, financing, or binding offtake. The benefits (production, cash flow) are long-term and contingent on future studies and funding. The language is generally proportionate for a PEA, but phrases like 'district-scale', 'flexible', and the focus on high IRR/NPV ratios may overstate the certainty and immediacy of value creation.

Risk flags

• ●The PEA is preliminary and relies heavily on inferred resources, which are geologically speculative and cannot be classified as reserves. This introduces significant uncertainty as to whether the projected economics can be realized.
• ●All financial and operating metrics, including NPV, IRR, payback, and production, are based on modelled assumptions and commodity prices, not actual operations or committed funding. Any deviation in metal prices, costs, or recoveries could materially impact project value.
• ●The project requires $463M in initial capital expenditure, a substantial sum for a development-stage company, and there is no disclosure of binding financing or construction start. Failure to secure funding would delay or jeopardize project advancement.
• ●Permitting is described as 'permitted with an existing mining license,' but no license number or documentation is provided. Changes in regulatory, environmental, or socio-political conditions in Morocco could affect project viability.
• ●The company explicitly cautions that there is no certainty the PEA will be realized or that mineral resources will be converted to reserves, highlighting the speculative nature of the current study.

Bottom line

Aya Gold & Silver's updated Boumadine PEA presents a sharply improved economic case, doubling after-tax NPV (5%) to $3.5B and extending mine life to 14 years, with robust IRR and capital efficiency metrics. The technical report is thorough, with detailed sensitivity analysis and a larger resource base, but all value remains hypothetical, as the PEA is preliminary and heavily reliant on inferred resources. No construction, financing, or offtake agreements are in place, and the company itself warns that these projections are not guaranteed to materialize. Investors should treat these numbers as indicative of potential, not as a basis for near-term cash flow or returns. The next major milestone is a Feasibility Study and demonstration of funding capability. The most important takeaway is that while the project's economics look compelling on paper, realization of value depends on successful de-risking through technical, financial, and permitting milestones.

Announcement summary

(TSX:AYA; NASDAQ:AYA) Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced the filing of a technical report presenting an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (2026 PEA) for the Boumadine Polymetallic Project in Morocco, effective September 9, 2026. The 2026 PEA was prepared in accordance with NI 43-101 by independent Qualified Persons from Lycopodium (Americas) Ltd and CCE Mining, with the updated Mineral Resource Estimate (2026 MRE) prepared by Mr. Guy Dishaw, P.Geo from SRK Consulting UK. The 2026 PEA supersedes the 2025 PEA and outlines a district-scale project with a flexible open-pit and underground mine plan, a conventional flotation plant producing zinc, lead, and pyrite concentrates, and a mine life estimated at 14 years. The after-tax NPV (5%) is $3.5B in the base case, more than double the Prior PEA, with a 93% IRR and a 0.7-year payback period. The base case assumes prices of $3,500/oz Au, $50/oz Ag, $1.37/lb Zn, and $0.90/lb Pb. At spot prices as of September 3, 2026, the after-tax NPV (5%) is $5.5B, IRR is 128%, and payback period is 0.5 years. Gold and silver payability increased to 82% and 85%, up 12 and 8 percentage points from the Prior PEA. Initial capital expenditure is $463M, with an NPV (5%):Capex ratio of 7.6x, up from 3.3x in the Prior PEA. Silver production over LOM is approximately 16% higher than the Prior PEA, with a larger MRE supporting the updated mine plan. Average annual production is 348 koz AuEq (Years 1-5) and 271 koz AuEq over LOM. LOM production totals 3.9 Moz AuEq (+7% vs. Prior PEA), comprising 2.3 Moz Au, 81.2 Moz Ag, 422 kt Zn, and 195 kt Pb. The updated mine plan includes 41.2 Mt total mineralized material mined over LOM (+33% vs. Prior PEA) at average grades of 4.11 g/t AuEq (Years 1-5) and 3.10 g/t AuEq (LOM). The mine life is extended to 14 years from 11 years in the Prior PEA. Cash costs are $998/oz AuEq (Years 1-5) and $1,169/oz AuEq over LOM. AISC is $1,105/oz AuEq (Years 1-5) and $1,300/oz AuEq over LOM. The project is permitted with an existing mining license ahead of Feasibility Study completion. The 2026 MRE (as of February 28, 2026) reports Indicated resources of 8.6 Mt at 4.02 g/t AuEq containing 1.1 Moz AuEq (up 34%) and Inferred resources of 45.4 Mt at 2.92 g/t AuEq containing 4.3 Moz AuEq (up 1%). Sensitivity analysis shows NPV (5%) after-tax ranges from $1,808M at break-even gold price ($1,704/oz) to $6,738M at upside gold price ($5,250/oz), with corresponding IRR from 57% to 146%. LOM revenue ranges from $5,441M to $16,246M, and LOM EBITDA from $910M to $11,094M. The capital efficiency ratio increases from 3.9 to 14.6 across price scenarios. The 2026 PEA is preliminary and includes inferred mineral resources considered too speculative geologically to have economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as mineral reserves. The scientific and technical information was reviewed and approved by Preetham Nayak, P.Eng (Lycopodium), Paul Gauthier, P.Eng (CCE Mining), Guy Dishaw, BSc, P.Geo (SRK), Raphael Beaudoin, P.Eng (Aya), and David Lalonde, B.Sc, P.Geo (Aya), with additional independent Qualified Persons listed. Aya will release its Q3-2026 financial results on November 12, 2026, before market opens, with a conference call at 10 a.m. ET the same day.

Disagree with this article?