Correction - Audited Results for the year end...

Serabi Gold delivered real, audited growth but faces rising costs and future execution risks.

Risk flags

• ●Operational cost inflation is evident, with cash costs rising from $1,326/oz to $1,437/oz and AISC from $1,700/oz to $1,816/oz year-on-year. This trend, if not reversed, could erode margins even if gold prices remain high.
• ●A significant portion of the company’s future growth narrative relies on successful execution of capital projects, such as the installation of a fourth ball mill and ramp-up at Coringa. Delays, cost overruns, or technical issues could materially impact future production and cash flow.
• ●The majority of forward-looking claims—such as achieving a 55,000 ounce run-rate and resource growth to 1.5+ million ounces—are at least one to two years away from being realised. Investors face the risk that these targets may slip or not be achieved at all.
• ●While the company is now debt-free and cash-rich, the capital intensity of ongoing and planned projects (e.g., $14.5 million in mine development, $8.15 million in exploration, and a new ball mill) means that free cash flow could be volatile if gold prices fall or costs rise further.
• ●Disclosure on non-financial matters, such as health and safety improvements and ESG initiatives, is largely qualitative. The occurrence of two fatalities in early 2026 highlights ongoing operational risks that could have reputational and regulatory consequences.
• ●There is no granular breakdown of financial or operational performance by mine or project, making it difficult for investors to assess the relative contribution or risk profile of Palito versus Coringa.
• ●The company operates exclusively in Brazil, exposing it to country-specific risks such as regulatory changes, currency volatility, and local operational challenges. No discussion of permitting, legal, or regulatory risks is provided in the announcement.
• ●All notable individuals named (CFO and Chair) are internal, so there is no external institutional validation or strategic partnership implied by their involvement. This means investors cannot infer additional de-risking or upside from outside capital or expertise.

Bottom line

For investors, this announcement is a clear signal that Serabi Gold has delivered a step-change in operational and financial performance, with all key metrics—revenue, production, EBITDA, profit, and cash—showing substantial, audited year-on-year growth. The inaugural dividend and debt-free status are tangible milestones that set the company apart from many junior miners. However, the rising cost base (AISC and cash costs) is a concern, and future growth depends on successful execution of capital projects and operational ramp-ups that are not yet de-risked. The absence of external institutional investors or strategic partners means the story is entirely self-driven, with no additional validation or capital support implied. To change this assessment, the company would need to provide more granular project-level disclosures, evidence of on-time and on-budget delivery of capital projects, and quantitative proof of non-financial initiatives. Key metrics to watch in the next reporting period include cost trends (AISC and cash costs), progress on the fourth ball mill, production guidance versus actuals, and any changes in cash flow or dividend policy. This announcement is worth monitoring closely—especially for signs that cost inflation is being controlled and that capital projects are progressing as planned—but is not a 'buy at any price' signal. The single most important takeaway is that Serabi Gold has proven it can generate real cash and pay dividends, but sustaining and growing this performance will require disciplined execution and cost control in a rising cost environment.

Announcement summary

Serabi Gold plc (AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI, OTCQX:SRBIF), a Brazilian focused gold mining and development company, announced its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2025. The company reported revenue of $155.8 million, a 65% increase from 2024, and gold production of 44,169 ounces, up 18% year-on-year. EBITDA for 2025 was $77.9 million, with a post-tax profit of $53.9 million, and cash held at year-end was $49.2 million. The Board announced the inaugural annual dividend of 5 pence (7 cents) per share, totaling approximately $5.41 million. The company also highlighted a strong balance sheet, ongoing exploration, and production growth plans.

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