FY2026 Production and Operational Update

Jubilee Metals posts 225% copper output growth, but cost inflation clouds margins.

What the company is saying

Jubilee Metals frames this update as a transformational step in its Zambian copper strategy, highlighting a 225.0% year-on-year increase in combined copper production to 3,739t for FY2026. The company emphasizes operational milestones: Roan's output rose 145.5% to 2,823t, Molefe Mine contributed 916t after starting in September 2025, and Sable cathode production increased 17.5% to 1,207t. Management claims Roan has reached 'stable operational output' and forecasts 2,850–3,150t for FY2027. The narrative stresses vertical integration, with Molefe and Project G intended to build a Jubilee-controlled feed pipeline. The company discloses a binding heads of terms for the sale of the Large Waste Project for US$35 million (or US$30 million for accelerated settlement), with a US$2.25 million deposit pending due diligence. Cost pressures are acknowledged: acid costs rose over 200% and diesel by 90% in Q4 FY2026, impacting Sable’s production. The tone is confident, focusing on operational scale-up and asset rationalisation, while forward-looking statements about Project G and resource reviews are positioned as near-term catalysts.

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures show a dramatic operational expansion: copper production prior to refining jumped 225.0% to 3,739t, Roan’s output rose 145.5% to 2,823t, and Sable’s cathode output increased 17.5% to 1,207t. Molefe Mine, operational since September 2025, added 916t, with 345t of high-grade ROM dispatched and 571t of low-grade ROM stockpiled. Combined cathode and copper sulphide concentrate produced for sale reached 2,120t, up 1.3% year-on-year. The company completed 1,801 meters of drilling and 371 in-pit samples at Molefe, and stripped 456,511t of a 1.6Mt pre-stripping target. Roan’s oxide concentrate output surged over 1,000% to 997t, while sulphide concentrate fell 14.4% to 913t, reflecting a shift in ore mix. Acid and diesel cost spikes (over 200% and 90%, respectively) are explicitly cited as impacting Sable’s production. The asset sale of the Large Waste Project is at a binding heads of terms stage for US$35 million (or US$30 million accelerated), with a US$2.25 million deposit contingent on imminent due diligence. Project G development is targeted for February 2027. While operational metrics are robust and granular, no revenue, margin, or cash flow data is disclosed, leaving the financial impact of cost inflation and production growth unquantified.

Analysis

The announcement is upbeat and provides detailed, credible operational data, including substantial year-on-year copper production growth and specific project milestones. However, the tone is somewhat inflated by the use of phrases like 'stable operational output' and ambitious forward-looking targets (e.g., FY2027 output, Project G development) that are not yet realised. The majority of claims are realised and supported by numerical evidence, but a significant minority are projections or targets. Critically, there is no disclosure of profitability, margin, or cash flow metrics, so the sustainability and financial impact of the operational gains cannot be assessed. The announcement does not overstate capital intensity, as most capital signals are tied to realised or near-term activities (e.g., asset sale, pre-stripping progress), and there is no evidence of large, long-dated, unfunded capex. The gap between narrative and evidence is moderate: operational progress is real, but the absence of financials and some forward-looking optimism temper the signal.

Risk flags

• ●Cost inflation is acute: acid prices rose over 200% and diesel by 90% in Q4 FY2026, directly impacting Sable’s production and potentially eroding margins despite higher output. The company’s ability to pass through or absorb these costs is not addressed in the disclosure.
• ●The asset sale of the Large Waste Project, while at a binding heads of terms stage for US$35 million (or US$30 million accelerated), is not yet closed. The US$2.25 million deposit is contingent on successful due diligence expected within a week, introducing completion and counterparty risk.
• ●Forward-looking production targets at Molefe (10,000tpm at 1.45% Cu) and Project G’s development (February 2027) are not yet realised. These depend on sustained operational performance, successful resource definition, and timely execution of mine plan updates and partner agreements.
• ●No financial metrics beyond production volumes are disclosed. The absence of revenue, margin, or cash flow data prevents assessment of whether operational growth translates into improved financial health, especially in the face of rising input costs.

Bottom line

Jubilee Metals delivers a step-change in copper production, with a 225% year-on-year increase to 3,739t and strong gains at both Roan and Molefe. The company is moving toward vertical integration and has signed a binding heads of terms to sell its Large Waste Project for up to US$35 million, with a US$2.25 million deposit pending due diligence in the coming week. Cost pressures are significant—acid and diesel costs surged over 200% and 90% respectively in Q4 FY2026—raising questions about profitability that cannot be answered from the data provided. While operational momentum is clear and near-term catalysts (asset sale completion, Molefe ramp-up, Project G start) are on the horizon, the lack of financial detail means investors cannot gauge whether production growth will drive earnings or cash flow. The most important takeaway is that Jubilee’s operational scale-up is real, but cost inflation and the absence of financials leave the bottom-line impact uncertain until further disclosure.

Announcement summary

(LSE:JLP) Jubilee Metals Group PLC reported a combined copper production prior to refining from the Roan operations and Molefe Mine of 3,739t of copper (Cu) for FY2026, an increase of 225.0% from 1,149t in FY2025. Combined Roan production from all three products was 2,823t of Cu in concentrate for FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 145.5% from FY2025. Molefe mine production totaled 916t of Cu in ROM, with production commencing in September 2025. Combined Cu in concentrate and ROM delivered to Sable during FY2026 for refining reached 1,342t of contained Cu, an increase of 1,497.6%. Combined cathode and copper sulphide concentrate produced for sale reached 2,120t of Cu in FY2026, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Roan's Cu in oxide concentrate increased by more than 1,000% to 997t, while Cu in sulphide concentrate decreased by 14.4% to 913t, and oxide concentrate fines production commenced at 913t. Roan reached stable operational output with a forecasted operational output for FY2027 of between 2,850t and 3,150t of Cu. Cathode production at Sable for FY2026 increased by 17.5% to 1,207t. During Q4 FY2026, domestic acid costs increased by over 200% and diesel costs by 90%, impacting production at Sable. At Molefe Mine, contained Cu units in HG ROM dispatched to Sable reached 345t, with a further 571t of contained Cu in LG ROM stockpiled at site. The expanded second phase resource drilling campaign at Molefe completed 1,801 meters drilled and 371 in-pit samples processed. The updated mine plan targets 1.6Mt of pre-stripping, with 456,511t stripped during the period. The project targets an HG ROM mining rate of 10,000tpm at a grade of 1.45% Cu, with an interim target of 7,500tpm during October 2026. Bulk ore sorting trials were completed in Q4 FY2026. The Company announced the execution of a Binding Heads of Terms for the sale of the Large Waste Project (LWP) for a consideration of US$35 million, with an option for accelerated settlement for US$30 million, and a deposit payment of US$2.25 million upon successful due diligence. Project G is targeted to commence development from February 2027. Jubilee’s Tjate platinum group metals project was retained, with expressions of interest received and under review.

Disagree with this article?