KPMG Study Finds Falco’s Horne 5 Project Is Projected to Contribute $8.8 Billion to Québec GDP

Falco's Horne 5 Project projects $8.8 billion GDP impact, but all benefits are long-dated.

What the company is saying

Falco Resources Ltd. is highlighting the results of a third-party socioeconomic impact study by KPMG LLP, which models the Horne 5 Project as a major economic engine for Québec and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region. The company frames the project as transformative, citing an $8.8 billion projected GDP contribution, over 22,800 job-years, and $5.1 billion in total tax revenues over the project's life. The announcement emphasizes the regional benefit, with 82% of value added and 61% of jobs expected to accrue locally, and aligns the project with government priorities for critical minerals and responsible development. Luc Lessard, President and CEO, is quoted to reinforce the project's scale and regional significance. The release also stresses commitments to workforce training, environmental sustainability, and supply chain strengthening, but these are presented as intentions rather than detailed programs. The tone is confident and focused on the magnitude of modeled impacts, with little discussion of risks, financing, or execution hurdles.

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures are all forward-looking projections based on a feasibility study and KPMG's socioeconomic modeling, not realised outcomes. The Horne 5 Project is estimated to require $12.1 billion in expenditures over 15 years, split between pre-production, operations, and closure. During the four-year pre-production and construction phase, the provincial GDP impact is modeled at $914.4 million, with 4,318 job-years and $59.4 million in provincial tax revenue; regionally, $644.6 million GDP, 2,075 job-years, $3.5 million local tax, and $32.7 million federal tax are projected. The operational and closure phases (15 years) are expected to generate $7.9 billion in provincial GDP, 18,485 job-years, and $3.5 billion in provincial tax, while the region is modeled for $6.5 billion GDP, 11,808 job-years, $37.5 million local tax, and $1.4 billion federal tax. 82% of value added is expected to benefit Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which would retain 61% of jobs. Osisko Gold Group Inc. holds a 16.0% stake in Falco. No actual financial performance, committed funding, or construction milestones are disclosed. The data is comprehensive in scope but entirely contingent on future project execution.

Analysis

The announcement is overwhelmingly forward-looking, with nearly all key claims based on projections from a third-party socioeconomic impact study rather than realised outcomes. The figures cited—such as $8.8 billion in GDP contribution, 22,800 jobs, and $5.1 billion in tax revenues—are contingent on the successful development, construction, and operation of the Horne 5 Project over a 15-year period. The capital outlay is substantial ($12.1 billion over 15 years), but there is no disclosure of committed financing, construction start, or near-term cash flow, and all benefits are long-dated. The language around workforce training, environmental sustainability, and supply chain strengthening is aspirational and lacks specific, actionable detail. While the study is detailed, the gap between the narrative of transformative economic impact and the current stage of the project is significant, as no immediate or near-term milestones are disclosed. The tone is positive and the numbers are large, but the evidence is entirely based on modeled projections, not realised progress.

Risk flags

• ●Execution risk is high, as the $12.1 billion in required expenditures over 15 years is not yet backed by disclosed financing, government approvals, or construction contracts. Without these, modeled benefits remain hypothetical.
• ●The entire economic impact narrative is based on forward-looking modeling rather than realised outcomes, so any delays, cost overruns, or permitting setbacks could materially reduce or defer the projected $8.8 billion GDP impact and job creation.
• ●There is significant permitting and regulatory risk, as the announcement does not confirm that all necessary government authorizations or social license have been secured for the Horne 5 Project.
• ●The project's capital intensity and long timeline expose it to commodity price volatility, cost inflation, and potential changes in government policy or community sentiment over the 15-year period.
• ●The absence of detailed, binding commitments for workforce training, environmental management, or supply chain development means that these benefits are aspirational and may not materialize as projected.

Bottom line

Falco's announcement presents an ambitious vision for the Horne 5 Project, with modeled figures showing $8.8 billion in GDP impact, over 22,800 job-years, and $5.1 billion in tax revenues for Québec and the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region. All of these benefits are contingent on the successful execution of a $12.1 billion, 15-year project that has not yet secured financing, permits, or a construction start. The socioeconomic study is detailed, but every figure is a projection, not a realised or contractually committed outcome. The company’s narrative is credible as a long-term aspiration, but there is a wide gap between the scale of the modeled impacts and the current project status. Investors should treat these numbers as scenario-based estimates, not as imminent or guaranteed outcomes. The most important takeaway is that while the Horne 5 Project could be transformative if built, no near-term value realization is evident until financing, permits, and construction milestones are achieved.

Announcement summary

(TSXV:FPC) Falco Resources Ltd. announced the results of a third-party Socioeconomic Impact Study conducted by KPMG LLP for the Horne 5 Project in Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, Canada. The Report, based on the updated feasibility study filed July 27, 2026, estimates the Project's direct and indirect contribution to Québec's GDP at $8.8 billion over its anticipated lifespan. The Horne 5 Project is expected to generate more than 22,800 direct and indirect jobs in person-years and approximately $5.1 billion in municipal, provincial, and federal tax revenues over the Project's life. KPMG estimates that 82% of the value added in Québec would accrue to the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region. Project expenditures are estimated at approximately $12.1 billion over 15 years, including pre-production investments, recurring operating costs, and site maintenance and reclamation expenses. During the pre-production and construction phase (4 years), the provincial impact is estimated at $914.4 million in GDP ($228.6 million per year), 4,318 jobs in person-years, and $59.4 million in provincial tax revenue; the regional impact is $644.6 million in GDP ($161.1 million per year), 2,075 jobs in person-years, $3.5 million in local tax revenue, and $32.7 million in federal tax revenue. For the operational and closure phases (15 years), the provincial impact is $7.9 billion in GDP ($524.5 million per year), 18,485 jobs in person-years, and $3.5 billion in provincial tax revenue ($233.6 million per year); the regional impact is $6.5 billion in GDP ($435.8 million per year), 11,808 jobs in person-years, and $37.5 million in local tax revenue, with $1.4 billion in federal tax revenue ($95.6 million per year). 82% of the direct and indirect added value generated by the Project is expected to accrue to Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which is expected to retain 61% of the jobs supported by the Project. The Project will support workforce training and skills development, particularly in trades and technical roles. Significant employment and business opportunities, as well as infrastructure improvements, are anticipated for the local community. Falco is committed to minimizing the Project’s environmental footprint through modern technologies, responsible water and tailings management, and reuse of existing mining infrastructure. The Project is expected to strengthen the provincial supply chain for critical minerals and aligns with Québec and Canada’s strategic priorities for critical minerals and responsible resource development. Falco holds rights to approximately 60,000 hectares of land in the Noranda Camp, including 13 former gold and base metal mine sites. The Horne 5 Project is located beneath the former Horne mine, which produced 11.6 million ounces of gold and 2.5 billion pounds of copper. Osisko Gold Group Inc. is Falco’s largest shareholder, with a 16.0% interest in the Corporation. Luc Lessard is President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director of Falco Resources Ltd.

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