MOU-6(Morocco) and Snowcap-3 (Trinidad)

Predator completes MOU-6 drilling in Morocco and secures Trinidad drilling approval.

What the company is saying

Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc reports the successful completion of drilling at the MOU-6 well in Morocco, reaching a total depth of 950 metres within the 20-day guidance. The company highlights that the well encountered a 21.2-metre gross upper interval in the TGB-6 Submarine Fan, thicker than the 13.2 metres seen in MOU-3, aligning with pre-drill seismic forecasts. Management emphasizes the acquisition of comprehensive wireline logs and improved wellbore conditions due to a new well design and mud weight strategy. The announcement states that a single well test will soon be performed and that results will be integrated with data from MOU-1 and MOU-3 to update the area's biogenic gas potential. Predator also announces regulatory approval to drill the Snowcap-3 well in Trinidad, with operational focus shifting there next. CEO Paul Griffiths is quoted as confident in the technical progress and the company's ability to leverage its Trinidad fiscal structure, including a 30% gross sales revenue share and a reduced effective Petroleum Profit Tax rate of 12.5%.

What the data suggests

The MOU-6 well was drilled to 950 metres in Morocco, on schedule within 20 days, and intersected a 21.2-metre gross upper interval in the TGB-6 Fan, a significant increase from the 13.2 metres in MOU-3. This thicker interval supports the company's seismic and depositional model, suggesting potential for greater reservoir development. Wireline logs, including spectral gamma ray and FMI, have been acquired, but flow rates and commerciality remain untested until the upcoming well test. The company has executed a Confidentiality Agreement with Geo Line Solution S.R.L. to calibrate results using analogues from Romania and Ukraine. In Trinidad, Predator receives 30% of gross sales revenues and uses tax losses to reduce Petroleum Profit Tax from 50% to 12.5%, improving netbacks. The Master Services Agreement with NABI Construction shifts operational and drilling costs away from Predator. No production, reserves, or revenue figures are disclosed for Morocco. The technical data is specific, but commercial outcomes depend on imminent well test results.

Analysis

The announcement provides a detailed and factual update on the successful completion of drilling at the MOU-6 well in Morocco, with specific technical data (depth, interval thickness, drilling timeline) that are fully realised and supported. However, a significant portion of the release is forward-looking, discussing upcoming well testing, potential integration of results, and future commercialisation routes (CNG/micro-LNG development), none of which are yet realised. The language around scalable gas development, commercialisation, and improved profit margins is aspirational and not yet substantiated by production or profitability data. The capital intensity flag is triggered by references to future CNG/micro-LNG development and scalable gas infrastructure, which would require substantial investment, but no immediate earnings impact is disclosed. While the technical progress is real, the narrative inflates the near-term commercial potential and profitability, given that key financial outcomes remain unproven and contingent on future work.

Risk flags

• ●Commerciality of the MOU-6 interval is unproven; flow test results are pending and will determine whether the thicker interval translates to producible gas volumes. Without positive test outcomes, resource and development potential remain speculative.
• ●The company's Moroccan gas strategy relies on future CNG or micro-LNG development, which would require significant capital investment and is contingent on confirming sufficient connected gas volumes and reservoir deliverability.
• ●While Predator's Trinidad operations benefit from a 30% gross sales revenue share and reduced effective tax rate of 12.5%, the announcement does not provide absolute production or revenue figures, making it difficult to assess the scale or sustainability of cash flows.
• ●Operational execution risk exists as the company transitions focus from Morocco to Trinidad, with timing and results of Snowcap-3 drilling dependent on completion of current Moroccan activities and successful coordination with local partners.

Bottom line

Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc has delivered a technical milestone by drilling the MOU-6 well in Morocco on schedule and intersecting a thicker-than-expected reservoir interval, but the commercial significance hinges on imminent well test results. The company's fiscal structure in Trinidad, including a 30% gross sales revenue share and a reduced effective Petroleum Profit Tax rate of 12.5%, is attractive, yet the absence of disclosed production or revenue figures limits visibility into actual financial performance. The regulatory approval for Snowcap-3 in Trinidad positions the company for continued operational progress, but execution risk remains as focus shifts between jurisdictions. Investors should watch for the MOU-6 well test outcome, as this will be the key determinant of near-term value in Morocco. The most important takeaway is that while technical progress is real, commercial upside is not yet demonstrated and remains dependent on forthcoming test data.

Announcement summary

(LSE:PRD) Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc announced the successful completion of drilling operations at the MOU-6 well in Morocco to a total depth of 950 metres, within the previously announced 20-day guidance. The well encountered the top of the primary target, the TGB-6 Submarine Fan interval, 600 metres northwest of MOU-3, with a gross upper interval of 21.2 metres, compared to approximately 13.2 metres in MOU-3. This increase in interval thickness aligns with pre-drill forecasts based on 2D seismic inversion data and the depositional model for the TGB-6 Fan, covering an area including the MOU-1 and MOU-3 wells. A comprehensive suite of wireline logs, including spectral gamma ray and Formation Microresistivity (FMI), has been acquired. The well is being completed for perforating up to 150 psi under-balanced using 4.5” TCP guns over the 21.2 metres of gross upper interval, and a single well test will be performed, with operations expected to commence shortly. Following well testing and data processing, results will be integrated with existing data to update the biogenic gas potential of the area evaluated by the MOU-1, MOU-3, and MOU-6 wells. A Confidentiality Agreement has been executed with Geo Line Solution S.R.L., a Romanian company with experience in biogenic gas fields in Romania and western Ukraine, to potentially provide analogues for calibrating the section penetrated between 800 and 1100 metres in the MOU-1, MOU-3, and MOU-6 wells. Regulatory approval to drill the Snowcap-3 well in the Cory Moruga Licence onshore Trinidad has been received, and further updates will follow completion of Moroccan operations. Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive Officer, stated that the new well design and mud weight strategy resulted in improved well cutting samples and wireline logs, confirming pre-drill expectations of a thicker TGB-6 Fan interval. He also noted that operational focus will now shift to Trinidad. Predator’s portfolio includes onshore Moroccan gas exposure and production, as well as appraisal and exploration projects in Trinidad. The company receives 30% of gross sales revenues in Trinidad, using acquired tax losses to reduce Petroleum Profit Tax from 50% to an effective rate of 12.5%. Predator operates under a Master Services Agreement with NABI Construction, which relieves the company of operational and drilling costs. The company is listed on the Equity Shares (transition) category of the Official List of the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities (symbol: PRD).

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