Q3 2026 Production and Sales Update

Anglo Asian Mining posts record copper output and strong sales, but cash falls on timing and payouts.

What the company is saying

Anglo Asian Mining frames its Q3 2026 update as evidence of successful execution on its strategy to become a majority copper producer, highlighting quarter-on-quarter copper production growth to 5,514 tonnes as Demirli ramps up. The company maintains a confident tone, emphasizing that Demirli is on track for steady-state production by the end of November and that full-year 2026 guidance for copper, gold, and silver output remains unchanged. CEO Reza Vaziri states the company is 'very well placed' to deliver its medium-term growth plan. The release foregrounds production and sales figures, with detailed breakdowns by asset and product, and provides explicit explanations for the $10.6 million net cash outflow—citing $10.0 million in dividend and tax payments and $30.1 million in working capital usage for September sales, which will reverse in Q4. The announcement also notes mining has recommenced at Ugur after mineralisation review, but provides no operational metrics for that site. Forward-looking statements about majority copper status and Demirli’s ramp-up are presented as imminent but not yet realised.

What the data suggests

The data show copper production nearly doubled year-on-year to 5,514 tonnes in Q3 2026 (Q3 2025: 2,288 tonnes), with Demirli contributing 3,824 tonnes and Gedabek 1,690 tonnes. Gold output was stable at 6,781 ounces (Q3 2025: 6,798 ounces), while silver production rose to 52,969 ounces (Q3 2025: 41,623 ounces). Gold bullion sales reached 5,733 ounces at $4,259 per ounce, up from $3,430 per ounce a year earlier. Total concentrate sales were 28,987 dmt, valued at $80.5 million, with Demirli accounting for $50.1 million and Gedabek $30.4 million. Cash fell to $56.5 million from $70.0 million at June-end, while debt dropped to $9.4 million from $12.3 million. The $10.6 million net cash outflow was driven by $10.0 million in dividend and tax payments and $30.1 million in working capital tied up in September sales, which is expected to reverse in Q4. Inventory of unsold gold doré and copper concentrate stood at $27.0 million. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance for 20,000–25,000 tonnes copper, 26,000–30,000 ounces gold, and 170,000–210,000 ounces silver, with AISC targets of $6,000–$7,000 per tonne copper and $1,500–$1,800 per ounce gold. The ramp-up at Demirli is not yet complete, so majority copper status is not yet achieved.

Analysis

The announcement is generally positive and supported by detailed operational and financial data, including quarter-on-quarter copper production growth, sales, cash, and debt figures. Most key claims are realised and evidenced by hard numbers, such as copper production rising to 5,514 tonnes in Q3 2026 and strong sales values. However, some forward-looking statements—such as the ramp-up of Demirli to full production by end of November and the assertion that the company will become a majority copper producer in 2026—are not yet realised and rely on guidance rather than achieved results. The tone is optimistic, with phrases like 'on track to become a mid-tier, majority copper producer,' but these are not materially overstated given the operational progress. There is no evidence of a large, unbacked capital outlay with only long-dated returns; capital spending and cash flows are disclosed and appear manageable. The gap between narrative and evidence is modest, with most claims substantiated and only a few forward-looking projections.

Risk flags

• ●The company’s transition to majority copper production relies on Demirli reaching steady-state output by the end of November; any operational delays or ramp-up issues could undermine both guidance and the strategic narrative.
• ●Cash outflow in Q3 2026 was significant at $10.6 million, driven by $10.0 million in dividend and tax payments and $30.1 million in working capital usage for September sales. While management expects this to reverse in Q4, any delays in receivables or further outflows could pressure liquidity.
• ●Forward-looking guidance for 2026 production and AISC is maintained, but remains unproven until Demirli achieves full ramp-up and majority copper status is realised. Missed targets or cost overruns would directly challenge management credibility.

Bottom line

Anglo Asian Mining delivered record copper production in Q3 2026, with Demirli now the main growth driver and on track for steady-state output within weeks. Sales volumes and values are strong, and gold and silver production are stable or rising, but cash fell sharply due to dividend, tax, and working capital timing—though management expects this to reverse in Q4. The company’s claim to majority copper status depends on Demirli’s ramp-up completing as scheduled; any operational hiccups would threaten both guidance and the investment case. Investors should watch for confirmation of full production at Demirli and the reversal of working capital outflow in the next update. The most important takeaway is that operational momentum is strong, but near-term execution at Demirli and cash management are critical to sustaining the growth story.

Announcement summary

(AIM:AAZ) Anglo Asian Mining plc provided a Q3 2026 production and sales update, reporting continued quarter-on-quarter copper production growth as Demirli ramps up to full production by the end of November. Copper production in Q3 2026 was 5,514 tonnes, up from 5,129 tonnes in Q2 2026 and 2,288 tonnes in Q3 2025, with 1,690 tonnes from Gedabek and 3,824 tonnes from Demirli. Gold production for Q3 2026 was 6,781 ounces (Q3 2025: 6,798 ounces), including 5,582 ounces from gold doré and 1,199 ounces from flotation and SART production. Silver production totaled 52,969 ounces (Q3 2025: 41,623 ounces), with 5,480 ounces in gold doré and 47,489 ounces from flotation and SART. Mining recommenced at Ugur during the quarter. For the nine months to 30 September 2026, copper production reached a record 14,354 tonnes (9M 2025: 3,476 tonnes), gold production was 19,110 ounces (9M 2025: 18,912 ounces), and silver production was 145,824 ounces (9M 2025: 103,971 ounces). Q3 2026 gold bullion sales totaled 5,733 ounces at an average price of $4,259 per ounce (Q3 2025: 5,181 ounces at $3,430 per ounce). Total concentrate sales were 28,987 dry metric tonnes valued at $80.5 million, with 9,655 dmt from Gedabek ($30.4 million) and 19,332 dmt from Demirli ($50.1 million). Cash at 30 September 2026 was $56.5 million (down from $70.0 million at 30 June 2026), and debt was $9.4 million (down from $12.3 million). Net cash outflow for the quarter was $10.6 million, including $10.0 million in dividend and profits tax payments, and $30.1 million working capital usage for September sales invoiced but received in October. Unsold gold doré and copper concentrate inventory was valued at $27.0 million at quarter end. The company maintains full-year 2026 guidance of 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes copper, 26,000 to 30,000 ounces gold, and 170,000 to 210,000 ounces silver, with AISC of $6,000 to $7,000 per tonne copper and $1,500 to $1,800 per ounce gold. Ore mined at Gedabek in Q3 2026 totaled 301,484 tonnes at an average gold grade of 1.14 g/t and copper grade of 1.27%. Demirli ore feed to the plant in Q3 2026 was 1,022,576 dmt at 0.50% copper, with 5,120 tonnes copper content. Q3 2026 copper concentrate production at Demirli was 19,369 tonnes with 3,824 tonnes copper content. Q3 2026 financials included a net cash decrease of $10.6 million, cash payments of $5.4 million in profits tax, $4.6 million in 2025 final dividend, and $8.8 million to the Government of Azerbaijan for production share on copper concentrate sales. CEO Reza Vaziri stated that the company is on track to become a mid-tier, majority copper producer, with Demirli expected to reach steady-state production by the end of November.

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