Reports Q3-2026 Production & Operational Highlights

Serabi Gold cuts 2026 production guidance after Q3 output drops and permitting delays persist.

What the company is saying

Serabi Gold plc reports Q3-2026 gold production of 11,008 ounces, a 9% decrease from Q3-2025, attributing the decline to lower-than-expected grades at the Palito Complex. Management, led by CEO Michael Hodgson, highlights operational cash generation, a $63.2 million cash balance at September 30, 2026, and the company’s debt-free status, but acknowledges the cash dip from $65.7 million at June 30, 2026, following a $5.1 million maiden dividend in July. The company stresses the completion and commissioning of a fourth ball mill at Palito, which is expected to raise annual processing capacity to 330,000 tonnes in 2027. The narrative emphasizes ongoing permitting efforts at Coringa, where the mine operates under a GUIA trial mining license expiring January 29, 2027, and outlines the steps required for a full operating license, including approvals from INCRA and FUNAI. Serabi admits that permitting delays have forced it to lower FY2026 production expectations to levels similar to FY2025, abandoning previous guidance of over 53,000 ounces. The company also notes ongoing brownfield drilling and a potential restart assessment at São Chico, but these are presented as future opportunities rather than imminent catalysts.

What the data suggests

Q3-2026 gold production of 11,008 ounces marks a 9% year-on-year decline, with year-to-date output at 34,057 ounces, making the previous FY2026 guidance of over 53,000 ounces unattainable. Cash decreased to $63.2 million at September 30, 2026, from $65.7 million at June 30, despite $3.4 million received from bullion sales in October, due to the $5.1 million dividend. The company remains debt-free, but operational momentum is constrained by permitting delays at Coringa, which limit ore transport to 100,000 tonnes per year; 85,602 tonnes had been transported by September 30. Coringa contributed 23,089 ounces YTD at a strong 7.74 g/t Au milled grade, while Palito underperformed at 4.90 g/t Au. The fourth ball mill at Palito is in final commissioning, increasing plant capacity from 650tpd to over 900tpd, but this will only translate into higher production if Coringa approvals are secured. The company expects materially lower capex in 2027 after heavy investment at Serra South and Galena in 2026, but provides no detailed breakdown. The data is comprehensive for realised production and cash, but forward-looking claims about throughput, capex, and permitting remain unsubstantiated by hard evidence.

Analysis

The announcement is measured in tone, providing detailed operational and financial data, including Q3-2026 gold production (11,008 ounces, down 9% YoY), cash balances, and specific mine development metrics. While several forward-looking statements are present (e.g., throughput increases in 2027, transition to mechanised stoping, permitting progress), these are balanced by concrete disclosures of completed milestones such as the installation of the fourth ball mill and ongoing mining activities. The company acknowledges production shortfalls and permitting delays, revising guidance downward, which reduces the risk of narrative inflation. However, some claims about future throughput, lower capex in 2027, and permitting progress are not yet realised and lack quantitative evidence. Significant capital has been deployed (e.g., ball mill installation, development at Serra South and Galena), but immediate earnings impact is limited due to production constraints and permitting delays.

Risk flags

• ●Permitting risk at Coringa is acute, as the mine operates under a GUIA license expiring January 29, 2027, and the full operating license requires unresolved approvals from INCRA and FUNAI. Failure to secure these in time could halt or severely restrict operations.
• ●Production risk is elevated due to lower-than-expected grades at Palito and the inability to ramp up output at Coringa, resulting in a 9% YoY decline in Q3 production and a downward revision of FY2026 guidance. This exposes the company to further downside if grades or throughput do not recover.
• ●Capital deployment risk is present, with significant 2026 development spending at Serra South and Galena and the commissioning of a fourth ball mill. If permitting delays persist, the expanded capacity may remain underutilized, reducing return on recent investments.
• ●Disclosure risk exists around forward-looking statements on capex reductions and throughput increases, as no detailed capex figures for 2026 or 2027 are provided and the realisation of higher throughput depends on uncertain permitting outcomes.

Bottom line

Serabi Gold’s Q3-2026 update reveals operational and permitting headwinds, with gold production down 9% year-on-year and FY2026 output now expected to match FY2025, far below earlier guidance. While the company maintains a strong cash position of $63.2 million and remains debt-free, its ability to capitalize on recent investments—such as the fourth ball mill and expanded plant capacity—depends on securing key permits at Coringa, where approvals remain pending. The operational performance at Coringa is robust, but Palito’s grades have disappointed, and permitting constraints limit further upside. Investors should focus on the resolution of the Coringa licensing process and any updates on production guidance in the upcoming Q3 financials. The most important takeaway is that near-term growth is stalled by regulatory bottlenecks, and until these are cleared, Serabi’s production and financial trajectory will remain constrained.

Announcement summary

(AIM:SRB, TSX:SBI, OTCQX:SRBIF) Serabi Gold plc reported Q3-2026 gold production of 11,008 ounces, representing a 9% decrease from Q3-2025, primarily due to lower-than-expected grades from the Palito Complex. As of 30 September 2026, the company held cash of $63.2 million, down from $65.7 million at 30 June 2026, reflecting operational cash generation offset by the payment of a maiden dividend of $5.1 million in July 2026. An additional $3.4 million in cash was received on 1 October 2026 from the sale of bullion in September 2026. The company remains debt-free. The installation of the fourth ball mill at the Palito Complex was completed on time and on budget, with final commissioning underway, increasing annual processing throughput to 330,000 tonnes per annum in 2027. The transition from selective open stoping to mechanised sublevel stoping at Coringa remains on track for Q4-2026. Coringa Mine currently operates under a 3-year GUIA licence expiring on January 29, 2027, and discussions are ongoing with the Agência Nacional de Mineração (ANM) regarding continuation of the GUIA. For the Coringa operating licence (LO), the company requires change of land use approval from INCRA and approval of the Estudo de Componente Indígena (ECI) from FUNAI, both of which are progressing. In September, SEMAS agreed the company can bypass the installation license (LI) and apply directly for the LO, the final step with SEMAS. As of 30 September 2026, 85,602 tonnes had been transported from Coringa to Palito Complex against the annual GUIA allowance of 100,000 tonnes. Year-to-date group gold production totals 34,057 ounces, with over 23,000 ounces from Coringa and the balance from Palito. Coringa achieved average milled grades of 7.74 g/t Au year-to-date, while Palito averaged 4.90 g/t Au. Group ore mined in Q3-2026 was 60,316 tonnes at 6.04 g/t Au, and milled ore was 57,115 tonnes at 6.28 g/t Au. Horizontal development for the quarter totaled 3,973 metres. Palito Complex mined 26,465 tonnes at 4.01 g/t Au in Q3-2026, while Coringa mined 34,040 tonnes at 7.63 g/t Au. The company expects FY2026 gold production to be at similar levels to FY2025, compared to previous guidance of over 53,000 ounces, due to permitting delays. Mining is ongoing at four zones at Coringa: Serra, Serra South, Meio, and Galena, with significant development expenditure at Serra South and Galena in 2026 and materially lower capital expenditures expected in 2027. The fourth ball mill at Palito increases plant capacity from 650tpd to over 900tpd. Brownfield drilling continues at both Palito and Coringa. The company is assessing the potential to restart mining at São Chico, subject to assessment and renewal of the São Chico GUIA licence. The company remains in positive dialogue with ANM to continue operations under the GUIA trial mining license and is advancing the required approvals for the LO. Michael Hodgson is Chief Executive Officer, Nick Box is Interim Chief Financial Officer, and Andrew Khov is Vice President, Head of Investor Relations & Business Development.

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