Total Graphite Plc — Montepuez Feasibility Study Update

Total Graphite advances Montepuez review, but production remains years away and unfunded.

What the company is saying

Total Graphite plc announces the appointment of Lycopodium Minerals Africa to review and update the feasibility work for its Montepuez Graphite Project in Mozambique, emphasising a modular development strategy. The company highlights Montepuez’s permit for up to 100,000 tpa graphite concentrate and stresses the project’s scale and potential to supply ex-China markets. Management frames the October 2017 Value Engineering Study as the preferred base case, citing reduced capex and improved returns versus the earlier 2017 DFS. The announcement foregrounds technical progress—60% of detailed engineering completed and early site works in place—while projecting further updates as Lycopodium’s review proceeds. Chairman Christian Dennis positions Montepuez as the foundation for an integrated graphite and anode materials business, referencing the strategic importance of ex-China supply. The tone is confident, focusing on capital efficiency and the project’s competitive cost position, but acknowledges that all historical figures are subject to restatement for cost inflation.

What the data suggests

The Montepuez project is permitted for up to 100,000 tpa of graphite concentrate, with the modular Value Engineering Study (VES) as the base case. VES Stage 1 targets approximately 50,000 tpa of 96.7% TGC concentrate for pre-production capex of US$42.3 million, operating costs of US$337/t, and a payback of under two years. Stage 2 adds around 49,000 tpa for incremental capex of US$27 million, bringing total capacity to about 100,000 tpa for a combined capex of US$69 million and reducing operating costs to below US$310/t. The earlier 2017 DFS required US$126 million capex for a single-stage 100,000 tpa operation, with an NPV (10%) of US$146 million, IRR of 21.4%, and payback of 4.75 years over a 30-year mine life. Approximately 60% of detailed design engineering is complete, with early site works such as a 100-person camp and power units in place. Montepuez’s mineral resources total 110.5 million tonnes at 8.2% TGC for 9.1 million tonnes of contained graphite. Combined with Balama Central, the company controls over 13 million tonnes of contained graphite at an average grade above 8% TGC. All cost and return figures are historical and will be restated for inflation. No project finance is secured, and construction is not scheduled to recommence before 2027.

Analysis

The announcement is upbeat and provides extensive technical and economic detail, but most of the key benefits (production, payback, operating costs) are forward-looking and contingent on future milestones. While the appointment of Lycopodium and the completion of 60% of detailed design are realised, the main value drivers—production ramp-up, cost reductions, and payback—are projections based on feasibility studies, not achieved outcomes. The capital outlay is significant (US$69 million for the two-stage VES scenario), yet there is no evidence of committed project finance or immediate earnings impact; construction recommencement is only targeted for 2027, making returns long-dated and uncertain. The language around 'targets', 'intentions', and 'optimisation opportunities' inflates the sense of progress relative to the actual stage, which is still pre-financing and pre-construction. No profitability or cash flow metrics are disclosed, so the true_signal cannot exceed weak_positive. The gap between narrative and evidence is moderate: technical progress is real, but commercial outcomes remain aspirational.

Risk flags

• ●Project finance is not secured, and all capital outlays—US$42.3 million for Stage 1 and US$27 million for Stage 2—remain contingent on future funding, making the timeline to value highly uncertain.
• ●All economic metrics, including operating costs of US$337/t and payback periods, are based on 2017 studies and will require restatement for inflation, potentially eroding the apparent capital efficiency.
• ●The project is still in the feasibility review stage, with construction not expected to recommence before 2027, exposing the company to prolonged execution risk and possible market or regulatory changes.
• ●No offtake agreements, binding sales contracts, or downstream partnerships are disclosed, leaving future revenue streams uncommitted and market access unproven.
• ●The company’s narrative relies on the strategic importance of ex-China graphite supply, but there is no evidence of demand-side pull or customer commitments to anchor the business case.

Bottom line

Total Graphite’s appointment of Lycopodium to update the Montepuez feasibility study marks a technical milestone, but the project remains pre-financing and pre-construction. The disclosed figures—US$42.3 million Stage 1 capex, US$337/t operating costs, and a two-stage capex of US$69 million—are historical and will be restated for inflation, so actual capital requirements may be higher. No project finance, offtake, or construction start is in place, and the earliest technical results are not due until November 2026. The company controls large, high-grade graphite resources in Mozambique, but all value realisation is long-dated and subject to successful study outcomes and funding. Investors should treat the narrative of capital efficiency and strategic positioning as aspirational until binding commitments are secured. The key catalyst will be the release of Lycopodium’s updated study and evidence of financing or offtake progress.

Announcement summary

(LSE:TGR) Total Graphite plc has appointed Lycopodium Minerals Africa (Pty) Limited to review and update the feasibility work on its Montepuez Graphite Project in Mozambique, which is permitted for production of up to 100,000 tpa of graphite concentrate. The review will use the modular development route set out in the October 2017 Value Engineering Study as the base case, rather than the single-stage 100,000 tpa configuration of the February 2017 DFS. The VES Stage 1 targets approximately 50,000 tpa of 96.7% total graphitic carbon concentrate for pre-production capex of US$42.3 million, operating costs of US$337/t, and payback of under two years. VES Stage 2 adds a further approximately 49,000 tpa for incremental capex of only approximately US$27 million, taking capacity to approximately 100,000 tpa for total capex of approximately US$69 million and reducing operating costs to below US$310/t. The February 2017 DFS contemplated a single-stage 100,000 tpa operation requiring US$126 million of pre-production capital, returning an NPV (10% discount rate) of US$146 million, an IRR of 21.4%, and payback of 4.75 years over a 30-year mine life. Montepuez Mineral Resources are 110.5 million tonnes at 8.2% TGC for 9.1 million tonnes of contained graphite. The Company holds two projects in Mozambique, Montepuez and Balama Central, with combined contained graphite of over 13 million tons at an average grade above 8% TGC. The latest mineral resource statement as at 30 September 2025 reports Elephant (Montepuez) total resources of 68.8 Mt at 7.5% TGC for 5,150 kt contained graphite, Buffalo (Montepuez) total resources of 41.7 Mt at 9.5% TGC for 3,950 kt contained graphite, and Balama Central total resources of 57.9 Mt at 7.9% TGC for 4,560 kt contained graphite. Approximately 60% of detailed design engineering has been completed, with early site works including a 100-person base camp, mobile crusher, power generation units, and ancillary infrastructure. Initial results from Lycopodium's review are targeted for November 2026, with the intention to proceed into a second phase updating the study for the chosen process route ahead of seeking project finance to recommence construction in 2027.

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