ArcelorMittal announces the publication of its third quarter 2026 sell-side analyst consensus figures

ArcelorMittal posts Q3 2026 consensus EBITDA of $1.97 billion from 12 analysts.

What the company is saying

ArcelorMittal is releasing third quarter 2026 consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, based on inputs from 12 sell-side analysts who cover the company. The announcement stresses that these are external analyst projections, not company guidance or actual results, and that ArcelorMittal had no role in collecting or compiling the data. The company highlights three headline figures: consensus EBITDA of $1,972 million, adjusted net income of $652 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.84. Adjusted net income and EPS explicitly exclude anticipated non-cash charges from the idling of the Kryvyi Rih plant in Ukraine, referencing a prior disclosure from September 25, 2026. The list of participating analysts is provided, and those whose estimates did not reflect the Ukraine impairment were excluded from the adjusted net income and EPS figures. The company also contextualizes its scale by citing 2025 revenue of $61.4 billion, crude steel production of 55.6 million tonnes, and iron ore output of 48.8 million tonnes.

What the data suggests

The consensus figures for Q3 2026 are: EBITDA at $1,972 million, adjusted net income at $652 million, and adjusted earnings per share at $0.84. These numbers reflect the median view of 12 sell-side analysts, with explicit adjustments to exclude the anticipated non-cash charges from the idling of the Kryvyi Rih facility in Ukraine. The exclusion of certain analysts' estimates due to lack of impairment adjustment increases the reliability of the adjusted net income and EPS consensus. The company’s 2025 operational scale is substantial, with $61.4 billion in revenue, 55.6 million tonnes of crude steel, and 48.8 million tonnes of iron ore produced. No period-over-period trend or year-on-year comparison is provided, so the direction of financial performance cannot be assessed from this disclosure alone. The figures are clear and specific for the current period, but the absence of historical or sequential consensus data limits insight into momentum or change.

Analysis

The announcement is a factual disclosure of third quarter 2026 sell-side analyst consensus estimates for ArcelorMittal, compiled by Visible Alpha. The figures presented (EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted EPS) are consensus projections, not company guidance or actual results, but are based on updated analyst inputs and exclude anticipated non-cash charges from the idling of the Kryvyi Rih facility. The language is neutral and avoids promotional or exaggerated claims, simply stating the methodology and context. Most claims are realised facts (publication of consensus, number of analysts, historical 2025 revenue and production), with only a minor forward-looking element regarding the anticipated non-cash charges. There is no evidence of narrative inflation or overstatement, and no large capital outlay or long-dated benefit is discussed. The gap between narrative and evidence is minimal, as the release is procedural and informational.

Risk flags

• ●The consensus figures are not company guidance or actual results, but external analyst projections, which may diverge from realised financials and could mislead if interpreted as company forecasts.
• ●Adjusted net income and EPS exclude anticipated non-cash charges from the idling of the Kryvyi Rih facility in Ukraine, but the actual magnitude of these charges is not disclosed, introducing uncertainty about the true bottom-line impact.
• ●The absence of sequential or year-over-year comparison data limits the ability to assess financial trajectory or momentum, making it harder for investors to judge whether performance is improving or deteriorating.

Bottom line

This announcement provides investors with consensus expectations for ArcelorMittal’s Q3 2026 performance: $1,972 million EBITDA, $652 million adjusted net income, and $0.84 adjusted EPS, all based on inputs from 12 sell-side analysts. These figures are not company guidance and exclude anticipated non-cash charges from the idling of the Kryvyi Rih plant, so actual reported results may differ. The company’s operational scale remains large, with $61.4 billion in 2025 revenue and significant steel and iron ore output, but no trend or comparative data is given to assess recent performance direction. The main takeaway is that these consensus numbers set market expectations ahead of the actual Q3 results, which will be the next actionable data point. Investors should focus on how reported results compare to these consensus estimates and seek further detail on the Ukraine impairment’s true financial impact.

Announcement summary

(NYSE:MT) ArcelorMittal has published its third quarter 2026 sell-side analyst consensus figures, which are based on estimates recorded by Visible Alpha, an independent company. The 3Q’26 consensus EBITDA is $1,972 million. The consensus for adjusted net income is $652 million. The consensus for adjusted earnings per share is $0.84. Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share exclude anticipated non-cash charges related to the idling of ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (Ukraine), as announced on September 25, 2026. The consensus is based on the participation of 12 sell-side brokers with updated estimates in Visible Alpha. The contributing analysts are from Bank of America (Reinhardt Van Der Walt), CITI (Ephrem Ravi, Krishan Agarwal), Deutsche Bank (Bastian Synagowitz), Goldman Sachs (Matt Greene), ING (Stijn Demeester), Jefferies (Cole Hathorn), Kepler (Boris Bourdet), Keybanc (Samuel Mckinney), Morgan Stanley (Alain Gabriel), Oddo (Maxime Kogge), UBS (Andrew Jones), and Wells Fargo (Timna Tanners). Analysts whose estimates have not yet been appropriately updated to reflect the previously announced Ukraine impairment have been excluded from the adjusted net income and adjusted EPS consensus. The consensus estimates are dated 30.10.26. In 2025, ArcelorMittal generated revenues of $61.4 billion. In 2025, the company produced 55.6 million metric tonnes of crude steel and 48.8 million tonnes of iron ore. ArcelorMittal has a presence in 60 countries and primary steelmaking operations in 14 countries. The company is the largest steel producer in Europe, among the largest in the Americas, and has a growing presence in Asia through its joint venture AM/NS India. ArcelorMittal is listed on the stock exchanges of New York (MT), Amsterdam (MT), Paris (MT), Luxembourg (MT), and on the Spanish stock exchanges of Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid, and Valencia (MTS).

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