Embraer S.A. Announces MATERIAL FACT

Embraer raises 2026 revenue and cash flow guidance while keeping delivery targets steady.

What the company is saying

Embraer S.A. is formally updating its 2026 guidance, stating that previous projections no longer reflect management’s best estimates due to evolving operating conditions and changing business risks. The company emphasizes that Commercial Aviation deliveries are unchanged at 80–85 aircraft, and Executive Aviation deliveries remain at 160–170 aircraft. The core narrative highlights an increase in Consolidated Net Revenues guidance to US$8.4–8.6 billion, up from US$8.2–8.5 billion, and a significant boost in Free Cash Flow guidance to US$700 million or higher, compared to the prior US$400 million or higher. Adjusted EBIT Margin remains at 10.0%–10.6%. The announcement is signed by Felipe Santana Santiago de Lima, Executive Vice President, Financial & Investor Relations, underscoring the update’s official and regulatory nature. The company clarifies that these projections exclude Eve and are not performance guarantees, explicitly noting exposure to economic, market, and industry risks. The tone is measured, with management presenting the figures as current best estimates rather than certainties.

What the data suggests

The updated guidance shows Embraer expects higher financial performance in 2026, specifically raising its net revenue target by US$200 million at the low end and US$100 million at the high end, now forecasting US$8.4–8.6 billion. Free Cash Flow guidance increases by at least US$300 million, now set at US$700 million or higher, indicating improved operational efficiency or anticipated cash generation. Commercial and Executive Aviation delivery targets remain unchanged, suggesting stable production expectations. Adjusted EBIT Margin guidance is maintained at 10.0%–10.6%, signaling confidence in profitability despite the higher revenue and cash flow targets. The company provides both previous and updated figures, allowing for direct comparison and transparency. The exclusion of Eve from these projections clarifies the scope of guidance. No actual year-to-date or interim results are provided, so the update is entirely forward-looking. The data is clear and complete for guidance purposes but lacks historical context.

Analysis

The announcement is a formal update to Embraer S.A.'s 2026 guidance, providing revised projections for aircraft deliveries, net revenues, EBIT margin, and free cash flow. All key claims are explicitly presented as forward-looking guidance for the year 2026, with clear numerical ranges and definitions. The tone is factual and includes standard disclaimers about risks and uncertainties, with no promotional or exaggerated language. There is no evidence of narrative inflation: the company does not claim that these results are already achieved, nor does it use superlatives or make outsized promises. The guidance is for the next fiscal year (near-term), and while capital intensity is referenced in the free cash flow definition, there is no new large capital outlay or acquisition disclosed in this update. The gap between narrative and evidence is minimal, as the company transparently presents its outlook and caveats.

Risk flags

• ●The projections are explicitly subject to risks and uncertainties related to economic, market, and industry conditions, which may materially impact actual results. This matters because external shocks or downturns could prevent Embraer from achieving its raised targets.
• ●The guidance is forward-looking and not a guarantee of performance, as management acknowledges that actual results may differ materially. This introduces the risk that investors relying on these figures may face disappointment if operational or market challenges arise.
• ●No actual or interim results are disclosed alongside the guidance, so investors cannot assess current progress toward these targets. This limits visibility into whether the higher revenue and cash flow goals are grounded in recent positive trends or are purely aspirational.

Bottom line

Embraer’s revised 2026 guidance signals increased confidence in its financial outlook, with net revenue now targeted at US$8.4–8.6 billion and Free Cash Flow at US$700 million or higher, both up from previous estimates. Delivery targets for both Commercial and Executive Aviation remain unchanged, suggesting stable operational expectations. The EBIT margin range is maintained, indicating management expects profitability to hold steady even as revenue and cash flow rise. The company is transparent about the forward-looking nature of these figures and the risks that could cause actual results to diverge. Investors should treat these projections as management’s best estimates rather than guarantees, especially given the lack of interim performance data. The most important takeaway is that Embraer sees improved financial prospects for 2026, but actual delivery on these targets will depend on execution and external conditions in the coming months.

Announcement summary

(NYSE:EMBJ) Embraer S.A. has revised its 2026 guidance, updating projections previously disclosed on March 6, 2026 and revised on August 10, 2026. The updated 2026 guidance maintains Commercial Aviation deliveries at 80 to 85 aircraft. Executive Aviation deliveries are also unchanged at 160 to 170 aircraft. The range for Consolidated Net Revenues has been increased to US$8.4 billion to US$8.6 billion, up from the previous range of US$8.2 billion to US$8.5 billion. The Adjusted EBIT Margin guidance remains at 10.0% to 10.6%. Free Cash Flow guidance has been raised to US$700 million or higher, compared to the previous guidance of US$400 million or higher. These projections do not consider Eve. Free Cash Flow is defined as net cash generated from operating activities, less net additions to property, plant and equipment (PP&E) and additions to intangible assets. The updated projections will be reflected in Section 3 of the Company's Reference Form and will be available on the websites of the CVM and the Company within the applicable legal deadlines. The company notes that these projections are not guarantees of performance and reflect only management's current view. The projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, including economic, market, and industry conditions, many of which are beyond the Company's control. Actual results may differ materially from the projections disclosed, and the Company may revise or update these projections in accordance with applicable regulations. The announcement is signed by Felipe Santana Santiago de Lima, Executive Vice President, Financial & Investor Relations.

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