EQS-Adhoc: Krones Aktiengesellschaft: Krones adjusts its revenue growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 and medium-term targets for 2028

Krones cuts 2026 and 2028 growth targets after weak nine-month revenue and macro headwinds.

What the company is saying

Krones Aktiengesellschaft is communicating a downward revision of its financial outlook, reducing both its 2026 revenue growth forecast and its medium-term 2028 targets. The Executive Board frames the announcement as a response to unfavorable market developments, citing challenging geopolitical conditions, increased customer costs, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty as the main drivers. The company provides preliminary figures for the first nine months of 2026, with revenue at €4,100 million (or €4,140 million adjusted for currency effects), and EBITDA at €453 million. The narrative emphasizes that while revenue growth is slowing, margin targets for 2026 (EBITDA margin 10.7%–11.1%, ROCE 19%–20%) are being maintained. For 2028, revenue expectations are now €6.0–€6.2 billion (down from €7 billion), and the EBITDA margin target is narrowed to 11%–12% (from 11%–13%). The company is explicit about the negative impact of refunded US tariffs on revenue (–€20 million) and the positive impact on EBITDA (+€10 million). The tone is factual and measured, with no attempt to soften the negative implications of the revised guidance.

What the data suggests

The disclosed numbers show that Krones’ revenue for the first nine months of 2026 was €4,100 million, or €4,140 million after adjusting for currency effects, with a modest 0.8% increase over the prior year’s first three quarters. EBITDA for the period reached €453 million, and the EBITDA margin, adjusted for the US tariff refund, was 10.8%. The company’s revised full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast is now 1%–2%, down from the previous 3%–5% range, indicating a marked slowdown. The 2028 revenue target has been cut to €6.0–€6.2 billion (from €7 billion), and the EBITDA margin target narrowed to 11%–12%. These changes reflect a deteriorating growth outlook, with management attributing the shortfall to external macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures rather than internal execution failures. The company quantifies the impact of US tariff refunds, but does not provide a detailed breakdown of other headwinds. All figures are preliminary, and the absence of prior-year absolute numbers limits deeper analysis, but the headline trend is clear: growth is slowing and targets have been reduced.

Analysis

The announcement is factual and measured, with no evidence of exaggerated or promotional language. The company discloses a reduction in both its near-term (2026) and medium-term (2028) revenue and margin targets, citing specific macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. Preliminary financial figures for the first nine months of 2026 are provided, including revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin, which support the revised outlook. The majority of forward-looking statements are downward revisions rather than aspirational claims, and there is no attempt to overstate future prospects. No large capital outlay or long-dated, uncertain returns are discussed. The tone is appropriately cautious given the deteriorating outlook, and all key claims are supported by disclosed data.

Risk flags

• ●The reduction in both near-term and medium-term revenue growth targets signals a deteriorating demand environment, which could further impact profitability and investor confidence if macroeconomic or geopolitical conditions worsen.
• ●Management attributes the guidance cut to external factors—geopolitical instability, customer cost increases, and macro uncertainty—none of which are under company control, making future performance highly sensitive to external shocks.
• ●All financial figures are preliminary and lack detailed period-over-period comparability, introducing uncertainty about the final results and limiting the ability to assess underlying operational trends.
• ●The company’s reliance on maintaining margin targets despite slowing growth may become unsustainable if revenue pressures intensify or if cost inflation accelerates, risking future downward revisions to profitability metrics.

Bottom line

Krones’ announcement delivers a clear warning: both short-term and medium-term growth prospects have weakened, with 2026 revenue growth now expected at just 1%–2% and the 2028 revenue target cut by nearly €1 billion. The company’s transparency in quantifying the impact of US tariff refunds and providing preliminary nine-month figures is a positive, but the overall message is negative—growth is slowing, and external headwinds are biting. Margin targets for 2026 and 2028 are being held for now, but if macroeconomic or geopolitical pressures persist, further downward revisions are possible. Investors should focus on the upcoming Q3 statement (due November 6, 2026) for confirmation of these trends and any additional detail on cost control or order intake. The most important takeaway is that Krones’ growth trajectory has shifted lower, and the company is bracing for continued external challenges.

Announcement summary

(LSE:0LQ4) Krones Aktiengesellschaft has announced an adjustment to its revenue growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 and revised its medium-term targets for 2028. The Executive Board has reduced the revenue growth forecast for 2026, adjusted for currency translation effects, and updated the medium-term revenue and margin targets for 2028. Preliminary figures show that Krones generated revenue of around €4,100 million in the first nine months of 2026, with revenue adjusted for currency translation effects at approximately €4,140 million. This includes a negative impact of approximately €20 million from refunded US tariffs. Revenue adjusted for currency translation effects increased by 0.8% in the first three quarters compared to the previous year. EBITDA for the first nine months is expected to be €453 million, including a positive impact of approximately €10 million from the refund of US tariffs. The EBITDA margin, adjusted for this effect, is expected to be 10.8% after the first three quarters. The company is revising its forecast for full-year 2026 revenue growth, adjusted for currency translation effects, to between 1% and 2%, down from the previous outlook of 3% to 5%. The Executive Board is maintaining its targets for the 2026 EBITDA margin at 10.7% to 11.1% and ROCE at 19% to 20%. The reduction in the revenue growth forecast is attributed to unfavorable developments in Krones' relevant markets, triggered by challenging geopolitical conditions, increased costs for customers, and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. For 2028, the Executive Board now expects revenue of between €6.0 billion and €6.2 billion, compared to the former outlook of around €7 billion. The medium-term EBITDA margin target for 2028 is now specified as 11% to 12%, revised from the previous 11% to 13%. The medium-term target for ROCE in 2028 is confirmed at more than 20%. All financial figures stated are preliminary. The statement for the third quarter of 2026 will be published on November 6, 2026. Olaf Scholz is named as Head of Group Investor Relations and Treasury.

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