EQS-Adhoc: SGL Carbon SE reports preliminary sales and earnings figures for the first nine months and raises its forecast for 2026

SGL Carbon SE raises 2026 earnings guidance despite year-on-year sales and EBITDA declines.

What the company is saying

SGL Carbon SE reports preliminary sales of €595 million and EBITDApre of €106 million for the first nine months of 2026, both down from €652.9 million and €108.6 million respectively in the same period of 2025. The company frames its narrative around improved business performance in Q3 2026 and positive expectations for the remainder of the year, leading to a raised full-year EBITDApre forecast to €130–140 million, up from the previous €110–130 million range. Management also expects to reach the upper end of its 2026 sales forecast of €720–770 million. The announcement emphasizes confidence in the current market environment but explicitly states that forecasts assume no deterioration in economic conditions. The company notes that its medium-term planning is unchanged and that accounting methods and consolidation scope remain consistent with prior forecasts. Claudia Kellert, Head of Investor Relations, is the only named executive, and the tone is upbeat but caveated by the conditionality of the guidance.

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures show a year-on-year decline in both sales and EBITDApre for the first nine months: sales fell from €652.9 million in 2025 to €595 million in 2026, an 8.9% drop, while EBITDApre slipped from €108.6 million to €106 million. Despite these declines, the company has raised its full-year EBITDApre guidance, suggesting an expectation of a stronger Q4 or improved operating leverage. The forecasted EBITDApre range for 2026 is now €130–140 million, up from the previous €110–130 million, and management expects to hit the top end of the €720–770 million sales range. The company provides no segment breakdown, cash flow, net income, or margin data, and does not detail the drivers behind the anticipated improvement. The forecasts are explicitly contingent on stable economic conditions, and the announcement does not provide scenario analysis or risk quantification. The data is sufficient for headline trend analysis but lacks granularity for deeper assessment.

Analysis

The announcement adopts a positive tone, highlighting an upward revision to full-year EBITDApre guidance and an expectation to reach the upper end of the sales forecast. However, the realised financials for the first nine months of 2026 show a year-over-year decline in both sales and EBITDApre, which is not emphasised in the narrative. The raised guidance is forward-looking and contingent on the assumption that economic conditions do not deteriorate, but no supporting detail or scenario analysis is provided. The gap between the upbeat language and the actual reported figures (which are lower than the prior year) suggests moderate narrative inflation. There is no evidence of a large capital outlay or long-dated, uncertain returns in this release. The signal is capped at weak_positive because, while EBITDApre is disclosed, there is no net income, cash flow, or margin data, and the improvement is only in forecast, not in realised results.

Risk flags

• ●The raised full-year guidance is based on the assumption that economic conditions will not deteriorate, but no detail is provided on sensitivity to potential downturns. If macro conditions worsen, the company may not achieve its targets.
• ●Year-to-date sales and EBITDApre are both down year-on-year, indicating that the improved outlook relies on a significant Q4 rebound. If this rebound does not materialise, there is a risk of missing the revised guidance.
• ●The announcement lacks detail on the operational or market drivers behind the anticipated improvement, providing limited transparency for investors to assess the credibility of the raised forecast.

Bottom line

SGL Carbon SE is signaling confidence by raising its full-year 2026 EBITDApre guidance to €130–140 million and aiming for the upper end of its €720–770 million sales range. However, the actual results so far show an 8.9% drop in sales and a slight decline in EBITDApre versus the same period last year. The positive outlook is contingent on a strong Q4 and stable economic conditions, with no detail provided on what will drive the turnaround. Investors should focus on whether the company delivers a material improvement in Q4 to justify the guidance upgrade. The most important takeaway is that the raised forecast is not yet supported by realised results, and execution risk remains high until the full-year numbers are published.

Announcement summary

(LSE:0MPL) SGL Carbon SE has reported preliminary sales and earnings figures for the first nine months of 2026 and has raised its forecast for the full year 2026. The company now expects adjusted EBITDA (EBITDApre) for 2026 to be in the range of €130 million to €140 million, up from the previous forecast of €110 million to €130 million. SGL Carbon SE expects to reach the upper end of its sales forecast range of €720 million to €770 million for 2026. Preliminary consolidated sales for the first three quarters of 2026 are approximately €595 million, compared to €652.9 million for the same period in 2025. EBITDApre for the first nine months of 2026 is approximately €106 million, compared to €108.6 million in the first nine months of 2025. The updated forecast for 2026 is based on the current market environment and assumes no deterioration in economic conditions. The company states that its medium-term planning remains unaffected by this update to the 2026 forecast. SGL Carbon SE will publish its nine-month results for 2026 as planned on November 5, 2026. The key figures in this press release are defined as in the 2025 Annual Report. There have been no changes to the scope of consolidation or accounting methods compared to the original forecast. Claudia Kellert is named as Head of Investor Relations, Communications and Corporate Sustainability. The company is listed on the Regulated Market in Frankfurt (Prime Standard) and on the Regulated Unofficial Market in Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Hanover, Munich, Stuttgart, and Tradegate. The ISINs listed are DE0007235301, DE000A30VKB5, and DE000A351SD3. The company is included in the SDAX index.

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