Fingrid Group – Management’s Review 1.1.–30.9.2026

Fingrid posts strong financial growth and commits €2 billion to grid expansion through 2029.

What the company is saying

Fingrid frames its narrative around robust financial and operational performance, highlighting a 10% increase in turnover to €872 million and a 33% rise in net profit to €170 million for January–September 2026. The company attributes these gains to higher electricity consumption, increased main grid tariffs, and elevated imbalance power prices. President & CEO Asta Sihvonen-Punkka emphasizes the need for substantial grid investment to meet accelerating demand, particularly from data centres and electrification projects. The announcement underscores a €5.2 billion investment plan, with €2 billion earmarked for 2026–2029 and €672 million already committed. Fingrid also details regulatory and legal proceedings, including ongoing appeals regarding grid fee regulation and the Olkiluoto 3 protection scheme. The tone is factual and confident, with explicit acknowledgment of execution challenges such as permitting delays and the need for policy support for balancing power.

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures show clear financial improvement: turnover rose 10% year-on-year to €872 million, EBITDA increased 34% to €475 million, and net profit climbed to €170 million from €128 million. Net cash flow from operations surged 44% to €508 million, while gross capital expenditure decreased to €313 million from €342 million, reflecting disciplined investment despite a large ongoing capex programme. Interest-bearing net debt was stable at €1,123 million. Renewable capacity additions slowed to 753 MW (down from 1,178 MW), but over 50 new grid connection agreements were signed, a third for data centres. The company’s transmission reliability rate remained extremely high at 99.99988%. Fingrid’s €2 billion capex plan for 2026–2029 is already 34% committed. The Forest Line 2 project is now in the investment phase, with commissioning set for 2030. Regulatory and legal disputes remain unresolved, but interim rulings allow continued operations under existing frameworks. The data supports management’s claims of growth and operational stability, with no evidence of overstatement.

Analysis

The announcement is a comprehensive management review with a neutral tone, providing detailed realised financial and operational results for the first nine months of 2026. Key profitability metrics (EBITDA, net income), operational statistics, and capital expenditure are all disclosed with period-over-period comparisons, supporting a strong_positive signal. While there are forward-looking statements regarding future investments and grid developments, these are clearly separated from the realised results and do not dominate the narrative. The majority of claims are factual and realised, with only a small fraction being forward-looking and none presented in an exaggerated or promotional manner. The capital expenditure programme is significant, but the announcement transparently distinguishes between committed and planned spending, and does not overstate near-term benefits. There is no evidence of narrative inflation or overstatement relative to the disclosed data.

Risk flags

• ●Execution risk is elevated due to the scale and duration of the €2 billion capex programme, with €672 million already committed but major projects such as Forest Line 2 not delivering value until 2030. Delays in permitting or construction could impact timelines and cost profiles.
• ●Regulatory and legal uncertainty persists, as ongoing appeals regarding grid fee regulation and the Olkiluoto 3 protection scheme could materially affect Fingrid’s ability to recover costs and earn a reasonable return. Interim court rulings provide stability, but final outcomes are pending.
• ●Rising grid demand, especially from data centres and electrification, increases pressure on infrastructure adequacy and reliability. If new balancing power capacity does not materialise as forecast, system stability and revenue growth could be at risk.
• ●The company faces cost inflation and potential supply chain constraints linked to the expansion of the power system, which could erode margins or require further tariff increases. The announced 4% grid fee hike for 2027 reflects these pressures.
• ●A slowdown in renewable capacity additions (753 MW vs. 1,178 MW prior year) may signal challenges in connecting new projects or market saturation, potentially impacting future growth in grid usage and related revenues.

Bottom line

Fingrid delivers strong financial results for the first nine months of 2026, with double-digit growth in revenue, EBITDA, and net profit, driven by increased electricity consumption and higher tariffs. The company is committing €2 billion to grid expansion through 2029, with €672 million already locked in and major projects like Forest Line 2 underway. While operational and financial performance is robust, investors should be mindful of unresolved regulatory and legal disputes that could affect future profitability, as well as execution risks tied to large-scale infrastructure investment. The slowdown in renewable capacity additions and the need for new balancing power highlight evolving market challenges. The most important takeaway is that Fingrid is financially strong and investing aggressively for future demand, but faces significant long-term execution and regulatory risks.

Announcement summary

(LSE:38FE) Fingrid Group reported its Management’s Review for the period 1 January to 30 September 2026, covering financial and operational performance. Electricity consumption in Finland grew by 5.0% to 64.8 terawatt hours, driven by cold weather early in the year. The emission factor for electricity consumed in Finland remained at 27 gCO2/kWh. Fingrid’s transmission reliability rate was 99.99988%, and the incident frequency rate (LTIF) increased to 5.4 from 4.5. Turnover for January–September 2026 rose to EUR 872 million from EUR 791 million, a 10% increase, due to higher electricity consumption, main grid pricing, and imbalance power prices. Total costs excluding the change in fair value of commodity derivatives were EUR 765 million, up from EUR 747 million. The result for the period was EUR 170 million, compared to EUR 128 million in the prior year. Net cash flow from operations was EUR 508 million, up from EUR 353 million. Gross capital expenditure for the period was EUR 313 million, down from EUR 342 million. Fingrid estimates its gross capital expenditure for 2026–2029 will be approximately EUR 2 billion, with EUR 672 million committed at the end of the review period. Interest-bearing net debt was EUR 1,123 million at the end of September 2026, compared to EUR 1,118 million at the end of September 2025 and EUR 1,208 million at year-end 2025. EBITDA for the period was EUR 475 million, up from EUR 355 million. The average number of employees was 655. Renewable production connected to the electricity system during the period was 753 MW, compared to 1,178 MW in the prior year and 1,509 MW for the full year 2025. Fingrid made an investment decision for the 400-kilovolt Forest Line 2 transmission connection from Vaala to Jämsä, approximately 350 km in length, scheduled for commissioning in 2030. Main grid service fees will increase by 4% as of 1 January 2027. Fingrid will not charge balance responsible parties the production and consumption volume fees for October and November 2026. Over the past 12 months, more than 50 new connection agreements were signed, about a third for data centres. In September, new requirements for wind and solar power plants in high-concentration areas were announced. The Olkiluoto 3 system protection scheme facilities were selected for 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028, allowing the plant to generate power above the system’s 1,300 MW maximum limit. Fingrid will not acquire frequency containment reserves (FCR) from the yearly market for 2027; procurement will be from the hourly market only. The Nordic TSOs postponed their joint connection to the European mFRR energy activation platform (MARI), with a likely new go-live date in September-October 2027. On 29 January 2024, Fingrid appealed to the Market Court against the Energy Authority’s regulatory methods decision for the sixth and seventh regulatory periods; the appeal was dismissed on 21 November 2025. Fingrid appealed to the Supreme Administrative Court on 23 December 2025. On 12 September 2025, the Market Court ruled mainly in favour of Fingrid regarding the Olkiluoto 3 grid connection, but found that Fingrid should have had the protection scheme fee terms approved by the Energy Authority. Fingrid appealed this on 27 October 2025. On 1 June 2026, the Supreme Administrative Court suspended enforcement of the Market Court’s decision, requiring compliance with the Energy Authority’s 11 January 2024 decision while the matter is pending. Fingrid submitted its proposal for fee determination principles on 30 April 2024, and the Energy Authority issued its decision on 30 December 2024, allocating certain costs to TVO and others to Fingrid.

Disagree with this article?