Gresham House Energy Storage Fund — Trading update for HY results to 30 June 2026

GRID posts strong NAV and EBITDA growth, but most future gains hinge on long-dated projects.

What the company is saying

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc (LSE:GRID) frames the first half of 2026 as a shift from planning to execution, highlighting a 15.8% NAV per share increase to 131.30p, with the majority of this uplift attributed to the revaluation of 397MW of projects now under construction. The company emphasizes double-digit growth in both portfolio revenues (up 9.5% to £34.7mn) and EBITDA (up 14.5% to £23.5mn), despite some assets being offline for augmentation. Management, including Chair John Leggate CBE and Fund Manager Ben Guest, stresses the successful financial close and construction start for three major projects, the conditional acquisition of an additional 777MW, and a strategic JV with Summit Transition Partners. The narrative underscores progress on augmentations, the Alternative Revenues strategy exceeding expectations, and a provisional Ofgem award for a 25-year contract on Ocker Hill. The tone is confident and forward-looking, with repeated references to value creation, de-risking, and ambitious growth targets, while acknowledging that some benefits are yet to be realized.

What the data suggests

The disclosed figures show NAV per share rose 15.8% to 131.30p at 30 June 2026, driven mainly by a 14.33p uplift from revaluing 397MW of projects now under construction. Portfolio revenues for H1 2026 reached £34.7mn, up 9.5% year-on-year, with EBITDA up 14.5% to £23.5mn. Revenue per operational MW fell to £63,200 from £75,100, reflecting weaker merchant conditions and asset downtime for upgrades. Contracted revenues rose to 61% of the total (from 35%), while merchant trading now accounts for 69% of uncontracted revenues and 27% of the total. Capacity Market revenues increased from 11% to 17% of total revenues. The company secured £141mn of senior project finance for the first three projects, covering about 70% of costs, and completed augmentations adding 150MWh. The Alternative Revenues trial contributed £242k in net revenues and £205k in EBITDA, with plans to scale to at least 20MW by year-end. Ofgem provisionally awarded a 25-year contract for Ocker Hill (145MW/1,160MWh), with final confirmation expected in Autumn 2026. Most future NAV upside depends on 777MW of conditionally acquired projects, which are not expected to enter construction until mid-to-late 2027.

Analysis

The announcement is upbeat, highlighting a 15.8% NAV per share increase and double-digit EBITDA and revenue growth, all supported by disclosed figures. However, the largest NAV uplift (14.33p of 17.96p) is due to revaluation of projects now under construction, not yet operational, and much of the future benefit (e.g., doubling capacity, £141mn EBITDA run rate, £25mn incremental EBITDA from Alternative Revenues) is contingent on projects with energisation dates in late 2027 and 2028. While the first three projects are fully funded and at financial close, the majority of the 1,174MW pipeline is only conditionally acquired, with construction and revenue realisation years away. The tone is promotional, with phrases like 'excellent progress', 'significantly exceeded expectations', and 'will more than double operational capacity', but these are not fully matched by immediate, realised operational or financial impact. The capital intensity is high, with large outlays and long-dated returns, and the forward-looking ratio is elevated, though some milestones (financial close, JV) are concrete. Overall, the narrative somewhat overstates the immediacy and certainty of future benefits relative to what is currently realised.

Risk flags

• ●Execution risk is high, as the bulk of future value depends on delivering 1,174MW of new projects, with only 397MW at financial close and under construction. The remaining 777MW is conditionally acquired, with construction and revenue generation at least a year away, making timelines vulnerable to permitting, financing, or supply chain delays.
• ●The NAV uplift is largely driven by revaluation of projects under construction rather than operational performance, so if project delivery is delayed or costs overrun, future NAV and earnings could fall short of current projections.
• ●Revenue per operational MW declined from £75,100 to £63,200, indicating weaker merchant market conditions and downtime for asset upgrades. If market conditions remain soft or asset availability issues persist, revenue and EBITDA growth could stall.
• ●The Alternative Revenues strategy, while exceeding expectations in trial, has only delivered £242k in net revenues and £205k in EBITDA to date. Scaling this to the targeted £25mn incremental annual EBITDA is unproven and may face operational or market barriers.
• ●The Ofgem cap and floor contract for Ocker Hill is only provisional. If final awards are not granted or are delayed, the expected long-term, government-backed revenue stream may not materialize, impacting the risk profile and future cash flows.

Bottom line

GRID's interim update shows robust NAV and EBITDA growth, but most of the value uplift comes from revaluing projects now under construction rather than realised cash flows. The company has secured funding and started construction on 397MW of new capacity, but the majority of its 1,174MW pipeline remains years from operation, with energisation not expected until late 2027 or 2028. Revenue per MW has declined, and while contracted revenues now make up a larger share, merchant market conditions remain a headwind. The Alternative Revenues initiative is promising but still small in scale, and the Ofgem contract for Ocker Hill is not yet final. Investors should focus on project delivery, the conversion of conditional pipeline to funded construction, and the realisation of operational cash flows as the true test of GRID's growth narrative. The main takeaway: near-term financials are improving, but the bulk of future upside is long-dated and execution-dependent.

Announcement summary

(LSE:GRID) Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc reported a 15.8% increase in NAV per share to 131.30p as of 30 June 2026, up from 113.34p at 31 December 2025, primarily driven by the revaluation of 397MW of projects now under construction. The company acquired or conditionally acquired over 1GW of new capacity in H1 2026, fully funded the first three projects totalling 397MW, and progressed them to construction. Portfolio revenues for H1 2026 were £34.7mn and EBITDA was £23.5mn, up 9.5% and 14.5% respectively from H1 2025. The first three pipeline projects, Cockenzie, Monets Garden and Elland 2, reached financial close in May 2026, with construction underway and target energisation in H2 2027 for Monets Garden and Elland 2 and H1 2028 for Cockenzie. An additional 777MW of new projects were conditionally acquired in May 2026, bringing total new projects to 1,174MW, which will more than double the operational capacity. A strategic JV with Summit Transition Partners (STP) was completed, with STP taking 25% stakes in Cockenzie, Monets Garden and Elland 2, and conditional exclusivity for Lister Drive and Ocker Hill, plus a right of first offer over a 25% stake in the 480MW Rayleigh project. Augmentations at Glassenbury and Stairfoot added 150MWh of operational capacity. The Alternative Revenues trial, launched in December 2025, exceeded expectations and is scaling up to at least 20MW by end 2026. Ofgem provisionally included Ocker Hill for a 25-year cap and floor contract under the UK Government's LDES scheme for a 145MW / 1,160MWh configuration, with final awards expected in Autumn 2026.

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